Political Predictions: What to Look Forward to This Year
By Christian Kassis
2019 is set to be a tumultuous year around the world, as elections take place, conflicts escalate, and global events take shape. As high school students, it is incredibly important to keep aware and alert of the many occurrences and events in global politics in the coming year as it is vital to understand the world around us.
Here at home, we are experiencing what is likely the lead-up to a very close and pivotal election, as the Conservative Party has rebounded their support and is a strong challenger to the Liberal Party. In the United States, the Democratic Party is gathering contenders who will challenge President Trump in the 2020 election. As of right now, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Kamala Harris, and Representative Beto O'Rourke look most likely to win the nomination, with a possible run by Former Vice-President Joe Biden- whom is an unlikely but incredibly popular contender, who will definitely prove to be a wildcard for the other contenders.
In Europe, the European Union parliament elections are the most important event to look forward to, with it being a culmination of all the new political movements that have risen across Europe gaining continent-wide representation. The wave of populism that swept countries such as Italy, Austria and Slovenia is likely to continue in the future as the political divisions in Europe become more drastic. In France, the Yellow Vest (or Gilets Jaunes) protests have swept the country and forced the unpopular French president to concede on certain issues, but as the protests continue, a solution has yet to be determined. Brexit, the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, is likely to continue to struggle, and result in a no-deal solution. This will place the country in economic and political jeopardy and dramatically increasing the political divisions in the United Kingdom.
In the Pacific, the US-China trade war will escalate, with the US trying to gain concessions on intellectual property theft and North Korea from China. China is continuing to pursue their trillion-dollar, continent-wide infrastructure plan, titled the one-belt, one-road initiative. This is designed to link the economies of Europe and Asia politically and economically to China through loans and infrastructure dependence. In order to put pressure on China, the US will seek to strengthen its relationship with Southeast Asian nations that have resisted China, such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.
In Africa, the continent will experience highs and lows, with certain areas experiencing stability, growth and development, such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria. Other countries like South Africa, are currently in a period of economic stagnation and political chaos. The ruling party has been losing support due to corruption, yet maintaining power. The election this year will prove to be a major test for South Africa.
Overall, 2019 will be one that builds up to and escalates the major events of the coming year; 2020 will be the end of the decade, and therefore an important year for global politics. As divisions escalate, and the world becomes more disruptive, it is more necessary than ever to understand the events that take place in the wider world I hope that you were able to learn from this article, as it is vital to learn and understand the events that occur around the world.